Lal Masjid

            FOR six months, it was a laboratory in the making.The black clouds of confusion, maladministration, lawlessness and terror that covered the capital forthe past six months have given rise to many conspiracy theories.
            There are people who think that the imams of the mosque were initially the accomplices of the government and the drama was staged for two types of audience: international and domestic.
              There are analysts who think that the Musharraf government got what it wanted-continuation as president in uniform and economic and military aid from America.
              The Taliban phenomena in Afghanistan and its spill-over into Pakistan are perceived in the West (particularly in the US) as a big threat to their interests in the region.
              Whenever the government sees the West getting weary of the current setup in Pakistan they would stage a real drama: be it in the shape of Taliban in the tribal belt or the MMA factor in the settled area.
              The Lal Masjid drama was staged right in the middle of the capital, they say, to make the West believe that the threat of an extremist takeover of nuclear Pakistan is real and that the current setup is their only choice.
              On the domestic front: it is election year (both for the president and parliament).There are constitutional issues relating to the presidential election which would require a tame CJ, who turned out not to be so. So he was referred to the Supreme Judicial Council.
               The popular support for the CJ and the independence of judiciary gave a platform to the fractured opposition to initiate a movement against the government. As a result a multi-party conference was called in London.
               The MPC had the potential to forge an effective alliance against the government. The climax of the Lal Masjid drama coincided with the MPC. As a result: all the cameras were focused on Lal Masjid and the MPC got little or no attention. Thus the MPC was a total failure.
                There has been continuous debate in the West, particularly in the US, as to whether the Musharraf government has the capacity to prevent the extremists from taking over nuclear Pakistan. A practical demonstration of their abilities would satisfy the West. For six months the imams and students were allowed to grow big and transform the mosque and the madressah into a fortress. Then came the time to test and show the world the abilities of Pakistan's SSG (Special Services Group).
                The lab was ready, the experiment was conducted and the weapon was tested successfully for the benefit of the international audience. Time will tell what the domestic audience will think of it.
                Whether it was a stage-managed drama or a miscalculated drive by the imams one thing is sure, the event would have grave future consequences for the nation.